As a scientist, I think a lot about things of scientific importance. For example, as one news reporter said this week, ice ages happen about once every 11,000 years and we are about due.  When I was about ten years old, I heard this (1962).  It is still true.  There may be some sort of natural thermostat in the earth that switches the temp back to "cold" when earth gets too hot.  How?  Maybe a warmer north and south pole cause air circulation patterns to change (as we've already noticed) so that cold air suddenly starts staying north (or south), creating a July where the Great Lakes freeze and stay frozen all year long.  Hmmm.

Ebola?  It has our attention, a little, after a nurse in Spain and one in Dallas, Texas, USA contracted Ebola without going to Africa by caring for Ebola patients.  The numbers say it all.  A month ago the US CDC (Center for Disease Control) estimated we would have 550,000 to 1.4 million Ebola cases by January.  So, I did my own estimate.  The math is simple.  5,800 known cases can easily be rounded to 6,000.  Here's the numbers.  The cases double every 10-21 days so I'll use 15 days (1/2 month)

2014

Mid-Sept = 6,000 cases (probably many more the CDC says, that have not been formally diagnosed).

Mid-Oct = 24,000 cases (a number not yet showing up, we are only up to 8,000 cases, good news; calculated by doubling twice a month).

Mid-Nov = 100,000 cases (using round number)

Mid-Dec = 400,000 cases

Mid-Jan = 800,000 cases

Late-Jan = 550,000 to 1,400,000 cases (CDC estimate)

So, by January, we will REALLY know if we have this under control.  The scary part?  There are a billion people in Africa, not a million. (Ok, 1.1 billion per https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Africa).

How long to go from 1 million to 1 billion?

Feb. 1 = 1 million

Mar. 2015 = 4 billion (remember, doubling twice a month)

April = 16

May = 64

June =  256

July = 1 billion

But, won't they make a vaccine?  Sure, in 12-18 months, by the time we have 1 billion cases.  Now, think of the logistics of producing and distributing 6 billion doses of vaccine.

Aug = 4 billion

Sept = 16 billion.  Oh, yeah, we only have 7 billion infectable people.  We have to stop somewhere!

What has me concerned at the moment is not the cases in the US and Spain.  It is the ones in Asia, South America, or elsewhere that are probably active but currently undiagnosed and actively setting up new centers for the disease.

I laugh at those who think they can control this by checking a person's temperature on an airplane!  The case in Texas shows how that is ineffective.  But more importantly is the spread on the ground.  People travel.  There are probably cases elsewhere in Africa already, undiagnosed and spreading.  Ebola is probably spreading as fast as people can walk and perhaps drive.  Even at that rate, it can go global quickly.  This disease will show very quickly how the rich try to isolate themselves and how the poor are quite defenseless.  Setting up a hospital for 100 patients does little good if you have 4,000 patients.  The conservative talk radio, no, it is no longer conservative, the far left wing talk radio announcers would try to isolate this.  They don't realize people will walk away from the disease and spread it in every direction as it gets worse.  Isolation will be ineffective because people move.  Also, if there are one million or one billion infections, who's going to be left to stop the disease?  One nurse I know told me today, "You won't see American doctors going into patient rooms if this gets bad in the US.  The nurses will have to take the risk."

I also wonder: if you have had Ebola, are you immune to reinfection?  I've not heard.

"We can control this," they said in Dallas.  Now, they realize "the best laid plans of mice and men go oft awry."  (Go oft awry = turn out badly, often go awry).

This is our "worse case scenario."  Fortunately, we may only have 10,000 cases by mid-October and not the 32,000 predicted. But if patients in Liberia are being told, "Go home," that's not a good sign.  I'd care for my wife if she had Ebola.  But I'd probably pass it on to the person who cares for me.  Without six truck loads of medical gear, the amount being burned after the patient in Dallas died, how can Africa keep this from spreading.  They cannot.  Even with six truck loads, a nurse still got sick and so did a nurse in Spain.

How do we stop it?  Aggressive moves now.  If we get 1 million people infected, there will be no stopping it.  We will know in a few months how this pans out, but we won't see the end for at least 2 years and only if we are very, very aggressive and lucky.

So, how soon will Ebola be in your town?  Next summer, at the latest.  Time to prepare?  We don't know how to prepare and we don't have 42 billion truck loads of medical gowns and stuff (6 trucks per person for 7 billion people).