According to the speech of Daokui Li, a famous economist who had an interview on Half-Hour Economy, CCTV, on 17th, May, figure out China’s economy was end up of slowdown and return to resurrection, he also predict that China’s GDP will surpass Japan at the end of this year.

China’s GDP will overtake Japan this year! The “super special” was stimulated our narrow nationalism only by an expert of non-official announcement, which make waves among netizens. We overtake Japan, and the next aim is America. The good news spread fast and excited everyone, for several decades the eternal aim of China is overtake America to show the superiority of socialism system.

I would like to ask a question that dose us sharing the equal standard of housing, medicine, education and other fundamental welfares as Switzerland, which is much lower of GDP rank than China but enjoy the high living standard in the world.

Obviously that it was another cup of tea between GDP amount and GDP per capita. Let us have a look of the living standard of Japanese before we overtake Japan. On 2008, the GDP per capita of Japanese was up to 3260USD, thirteenfold of Chinese people. We still have a long way to go forward.

At present, the development of China’s economy is much relies on the investment, especially from FDI or FII. Foreign capitals created a large scale of “China-style GDP”, the most of benefits were flew abroad through exports. The higher amount of GDP we have, the more benefits we lose. Though we got some rounding errors during the process of cake dividing, the great mass of benefits were far away from Chinese people, we lose more during the wave of International economic integration.

When the total economic pie grows bigger, coincide with unfair distribution, the social crisis is under eruption when people feel that they have been deprived of equal rights to sharing the social fortune. On 1994, the Gini Index of China was overpass 0.4, and it rise up to 0.48 on 2007, the alert line of international level is 0.4.

Another data from the World Bank on 2006 also approved the viewpoint. It is reported that the 4% of minorities of China who holds the 70% of the total social wealth, and the identical case of U.S. is that 60% of wealth was under control of 5% people. The GDP per capita is only a factitious prosperity in the condition of polarization. If most of us were live under levels, the figure is only cover up the majority of the poor. We don’t care of any empty happiness, we need true one.

As some people said, China is never mightiness but obesity. We are not only lack of power but also concealed covered many virulence factors. Specific to China's economic analysis, that is, low gold content of China's economy, weak scientific and technological innovation, the growth of economic is rely on cheap labor and destructive activities for the environment. China is really sick; we paid a high price to development. Environmental pollution, quality and safety problem of products, and the universal poverty within the nation were the consequences of desperation.

So, its blind to merely celebrate for the GDP overtake Japan this year. If we indulged ourselves in such figure game, as we did before, the negative influence will far-reaching.

Exactly, we are not only overtake Japan of GDP at once, the economic amount of China was much more that Japan on Qing Dynasty, but it can never change the outcome of Sino-Japanese War of 1894. The reason is complicated, but we can easy to judge that a poor country which produce and selling tea or china, will never catch up with a rich nation who cash in on cannons or steamships.

In a nutshell, the GDP is frustrated before we build up the first-class of system, technology and human resources.